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- Home Sales Drop 27 Percent In July And Things Are Only Going To Get Worse For The U.S. Housing Industry
- Caution: Do NOT enter markets recklessly!! U have been warned!!
- Currencies Consolidate.Full Beige Book Report
- Sorry, Progress On Reducing Joblessness Will Be Slow, And Uncertainty Is High
- Correction or minor bounce? 08 July 2010
- CRITICAL Support Levels
Home Sales Drop 27 Percent In July And Things Are Only Going To Get Worse For The U.S. Housing Industry
On Tuesday the National Association of Realtors announced that existing home sales in the United States dropped a whopping 27.2% in the month of July.
The consensus among analysts was that we would see a drop of around 13 percent, so when the 27 percent figure was announced it sent a shock through world financial markets. Only 3.83 million units were sold in July, which was down from 5.26 million in June, and which was the lowest number that the National Association of Realtors has ever seen since they began tracking this statistic back in 1999. To say that the real estate industry is alarmed by these numbers would be a tremendous understatement. What we are seeing unfold is essentially "Armageddon" for those involved in the housing and real estate industries.
The real estate market is grinding to a standstill and a shockingly low number of people are actually in the market to buy a home right now. In the months ahead home sales may pick up a little bit, but only if housing prices start to fall. Why? Because right now there are tons of houses on the market and there are very few qualified buyers available to purchase them and potential buyers are starting to realize this. Buyers are beginning to understand that they have all the leverage now and they are waiting for prices to fall.
The consensus among analysts was that we would see a drop of around 13 percent, so when the 27 percent figure was announced it sent a shock through world financial markets. Only 3.83 million units were sold in July, which was down from 5.26 million in June, and which was the lowest number that the National Association of Realtors has ever seen since they began tracking this statistic back in 1999. To say that the real estate industry is alarmed by these numbers would be a tremendous understatement. What we are seeing unfold is essentially "Armageddon" for those involved in the housing and real estate industries.
The real estate market is grinding to a standstill and a shockingly low number of people are actually in the market to buy a home right now. In the months ahead home sales may pick up a little bit, but only if housing prices start to fall. Why? Because right now there are tons of houses on the market and there are very few qualified buyers available to purchase them and potential buyers are starting to realize this. Buyers are beginning to understand that they have all the leverage now and they are waiting for prices to fall.
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Caution: Do NOT enter markets recklessly!! U have been warned!!
Dear friends,
Markets are in bull run with no fundamental support and full of speculators.
Be cautious when u buy shares or trade forex.
Do not buy or sell EUR/USD and GBP/USD until there are clear signals. Currencies have a tendency to remain overbought for extended periods and many traders sell thinking these prices will fall.
You have been warned. Wait for clarity in the markets before proceeding.
All the best trading!!
Dollar is continuing to trade weak all over. However, the dollar is currently near its very crucial Support level. The Dollar index (80.90) is near its 200-DMA (currently at 80.71) Support. Will the dollar regain its strength? We will have to wait and watch.
The Euro (1.3165) has risen breaking above its important Resistance in 1.3100-25 region and is trading higher now. Further rise towards 1.3250 is looking likely. Dollar-Yen.(86.41), with lack of upside momentum, is retaining its downside pressure. A break below 86.00-85.90 Support region might pull it further down towards 85.00-84.80 in the coming days. The Euro-Yen Cross (113.68) is trading above the Resistance at 113.50 and while above 113.50, there are good chances of seeing a further rise towards 114.50-115 today.
Markets are in bull run with no fundamental support and full of speculators.
Be cautious when u buy shares or trade forex.
Do not buy or sell EUR/USD and GBP/USD until there are clear signals. Currencies have a tendency to remain overbought for extended periods and many traders sell thinking these prices will fall.
You have been warned. Wait for clarity in the markets before proceeding.
All the best trading!!
Dollar is continuing to trade weak all over. However, the dollar is currently near its very crucial Support level. The Dollar index (80.90) is near its 200-DMA (currently at 80.71) Support. Will the dollar regain its strength? We will have to wait and watch.
The Euro (1.3165) has risen breaking above its important Resistance in 1.3100-25 region and is trading higher now. Further rise towards 1.3250 is looking likely. Dollar-Yen.(86.41), with lack of upside momentum, is retaining its downside pressure. A break below 86.00-85.90 Support region might pull it further down towards 85.00-84.80 in the coming days. The Euro-Yen Cross (113.68) is trading above the Resistance at 113.50 and while above 113.50, there are good chances of seeing a further rise towards 114.50-115 today.
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Currencies Consolidate.Full Beige Book Report
Hi Guys,
For those of you following the forex markets closely, some curriencies are already consolidating.
USD/JPY Support at 86.70. Suggest LONG 87.10 for upside. Target 88.0
News: Beige Book Report
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and based on information collected on or before July 19, 2010. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economic activity has continued to increase, on balance, since the previous survey, although the Cleveland and Kansas City Districts reported that the level of economic activity generally held steady. Among those Districts reporting improvements in economic activity, a number of them noted that the increases were modest, and two Districts, Atlanta and Chicago, said that the pace of economic activity had slowed recently.
Manufacturing activity continued to expand in most Districts, although several Districts reported that activity had slowed or leveled off during the reporting period. Districts also noted improved conditions in the services sector. The five Districts reporting on transportation noted increased activity. Tourism activity also increased across the Districts, although the Atlanta District noted concerns about decreased leisure travel to the Gulf Coast. Retail sales reports generally indicated a continued rise in spending, and several Districts noted that necessities continued to be strong sellers, while big-ticket items moved more slowly. However, most Districts that reported on auto sales noted declines in recent weeks. Activity in residential real estate markets was sluggish in most Districts after the expiration of the April 30 deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. Commercial real estate markets, especially construction, remained weak. Banking conditions varied across the Districts, with some Districts noting soft or decreased overall loan demand; credit standards remained tight in most reporting Districts. Recent rains had mixed effects on crop conditions, while activity in the natural resources sector increased. Overall labor market conditions improved modestly across the Districts, with several reports of temporary hiring. Consumer prices of goods and services held steady in most reporting Districts. Input prices also held largely steady, with only a few reports of cost increases. Wage pressures continued to be contained on the whole.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Manufacturing activity in most Districts continued to move up since the last report, although the pace of activity slowed or activity leveled off in the New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Atlanta, and Richmond Districts. Automobile manufacturing was a bright spot for the Cleveland, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts. Automobile parts suppliers also experienced increased demand in both the Richmond and Chicago Districts. Fuel demand at refineries in the San Francisco District improved, while gasoline demand was steady in the Dallas District. Firms in the semiconductor manufacturing industry reported relatively strong sales or demand growth in both the Boston and San Francisco Districts. Firms in aircraft and parts manufacturing saw sales pick up in both the San Francisco and Dallas Districts. Manufacturing firms in the Boston, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts were optimistic that demand would continue to improve in the following months. However, Cleveland's contacts expect demand growth to taper off, Philadelphia noted that the balance of positive over negative views had narrowed, and Atlanta reported fewer firms planning expansions in production. Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas reported that firms in construction-related manufacturing experienced weak demand; construction supplies sales were flat in Kansas City, and Minneapolis reported that a firm in the sector was increasing production. Steel production declined in both the Chicago and Cleveland Districts. Some manufacturers in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts reported high excess production capacity. Capacity utilization was below pre-recession levels in Cleveland and edged lower among steel producers in Chicago.
Activity in the services sector improved across most Districts since the previous report. The freight transportation industry experienced gains in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, Dallas, and Philadelphia Districts. Boston, Minneapolis, and Dallas reported a pickup in demand for some consulting firms. Tourism activity increased in the San Francisco, New York, Minneapolis, Richmond, Kansas City, and Atlanta Districts. Atlanta reported that leisure travel decreased in the Gulf Coast, but some of the lost tourist traffic was offset by the presence of cleanup crews, oil company workers, and the National Guard. Information technology firms saw increased business in the Philadelphia, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts, while activity was flat in the Minneapolis District. Demand for healthcare services was flat in both the San Francisco and Richmond Districts, while activity increased in the Boston District.
Consumer Spending
Reports on retail sales during the early summer months were generally positive, although in most Districts the increases were modest. Retail sales in the New York, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts were higher than year-earlier sales, and Dallas reported solid gains. But sales in the Boston District were mixed compared with the previous year. Recent sales increased slightly in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts; sales in the Richmond District weakened; and sales in the Kansas City District were flat compared with the previous report. Several Districts cited apparel, food, and other necessities as recent strong sellers, while big-ticket items were weak sellers. Contacts reported satisfactory inventory levels in the New York District, mixed inventory levels in the Boston District, and low or declining inventory levels in the Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts. The outlook for sales was mixed: Retailers in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts reported that they expect modest positive sales growth in the upcoming months; contacts in the Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts reported a less optimistic outlook going forward than in the previous report; and retailers in the Boston District reported a cautious outlook.
The Districts that reported on auto sales during the early summer months generally noted a decrease in recent sales. Since the previous report, auto sales in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts declined, while auto sales in the Kansas City District increased and were unchanged in the Dallas District. Compared with last year, auto sales in the Atlanta and St. Louis Districts were higher. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas all reported that inventory levels were low or declining. Auto dealers anticipate little change in sales for the rest of 2010 in the Philadelphia District and expect sales to increase slowly in the Dallas District. Contacts in the Kansas City District expect continued strong demand, while those in the Cleveland District do not anticipate strong growth in the coming months.
Real Estate and Construction
Nearly all Districts reported sluggish housing markets in the months since the homebuyer tax credit expired on April 30. While some Districts, such as Boston and St. Louis, reported an increase in May and June home sales on a year-over-year basis, some contacts noted that these sales may reflect closings of homes under contract by the April tax credit deadline. The Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts reported that home sales are expected to weaken going forward. Residential construction remained limited in several Districts. In the Atlanta District, residential construction activity softened from already weak levels. Homebuilders in the Cleveland District do not expect a turnaround in new home construction any time this year. Builders in the Chicago District are not introducing new inventory without a signed contract on a home. Housing starts were expected to decline for the second half of the year in the Dallas District and to increase slightly over the next three months in the Kansas City District.
Commercial and industrial real estate markets continued to struggle in all twelve Districts. Overall, vacancy rates were flat to slightly increased and continued to exert downward pressure on rents. Construction activity remained weak in most Districts. The New York District noted that commercial development remained generally sluggish despite some pickup in office and retail leasing in New York City. Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Dallas reported that construction activity continued to be weak or to decline, and Cleveland reported that the increase in construction from previous reports has begun to diminish. Philadelphia reported that projects funded with federal stimulus support were near completion with no prospects for additional major construction, while Chicago reported that public infrastructure construction picked up. Developers reported difficult credit conditions in the Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, and Kansas City Districts, while the Dallas District reported a few developers going out of business. The outlook for commercial and industrial real estate across the Districts ranged from further declines in activity to slow growth.
Banking and Finance
Reports on banking conditions were largely mixed across the Districts. Banking activity in Richmond and loan demand in Kansas City increased modestly. Overall loan demand was reported as soft or weak in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Dallas, while total outstanding loan volume decreased in recent months in St. Louis but was steady in Philadelphia and San Francisco. Demand for commercial loans was flat to increasing in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts; in contrast, St. Louis reported a decrease in commercial loans outstanding, while New York, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported restrained or decreasing demand in this lending category. Demand for consumer loans was weak in Cleveland and eased in Philadelphia; Atlanta and St. Louis indicated a decline in consumer lending; but demand for consumer loans increased in New York and Kansas City. Demand for residential mortgage loans eased in the Philadelphia District but increased in the New York District; Cleveland reported residential mortgage activity below expectations at given rates; and real estate lending decreased in St. Louis. Credit was limited for commercial real estate loans in Chicago, and demand fell for these loans in New York and Kansas City.
Most Districts reporting on credit standards continued to note that lending standards remain restrictive. New York reported tighter credit standards for all categories except consumer loans, while Kansas City reported tighter commercial lending standards. Reports on credit quality were mixed in Cleveland and Kansas City, while quality was stable in San Francisco. Credit quality improved slightly in Philadelphia, Richmond, and Chicago. In the Dallas District, nonperforming loans have stabilized and are not expected to worsen. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Richmond continued to report delinquencies above historic norms. Delinquency rates in the New York District decreased for consumer loans but experienced little or no change in other categories.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Recent rains improved the dry conditions in the Minneapolis and Dallas Districts and reduced irrigation needs in the Kansas City District. In contrast, excess precipitation caused some crop damage in the Chicago District and some delays in the winter wheat harvest in the Kansas City District. Parts of the Atlanta District experienced some crop stress due to dryness and heat. Contacts reported that crops were in good condition overall in the Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts, but crop conditions worsened slightly in recent weeks in the Chicago District and were mixed in the St. Louis District compared with last year. Producers in the Chicago District continued to expect good yields for their corn and soybean crops, and the outlook for cotton yields in the Dallas District has improved.
Overall, activity in the energy sector increased since the previous report. Oil production in the Atlanta District and oil and natural gas production in the Cleveland District were relatively unchanged, but other activity picked up throughout the Districts during the reporting period. The number of drilling rigs increased in the Dallas District, and production continued to expand in the Kansas City District. Additionally, oil exploration in the Minneapolis District and oil extraction in the San Francisco District increased. Activity in the Minneapolis District's mining sector increased in recent weeks, as did production and demand for coal in the Cleveland District. Kansas City reported that contacts expect to see continued growth in energy production.
Labor Markets, Wages, and Prices
Labor market conditions improved gradually in several Districts. New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Richmond, and Atlanta all reported that labor markets improved, albeit modestly in some cases, while Boston and Dallas reported that employment was steady. Philadelphia, Atlanta, Richmond, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported that temporary employment experienced increased demand. Contacts in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts said that they continued to rely on temporary staff over permanent hires. Cleveland, Richmond, and Chicago saw hiring in the manufacturing sector. Cleveland also reported some new job openings in the healthcare industry. Boston and Cleveland noted that firms in some services industries were hiring mostly for replacement. Dallas reported that firms in the energy industry experienced significant regional layoffs as a result of the deepwater drilling moratorium. San Francisco noted continued high levels of unemployment and limited hiring.
Wage pressures remained largely contained across most Districts. Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Minneapolis, and San Francisco reported little or no change in wages, while Cleveland, Chicago, and Kansas City reported that wage pressures were small or remained subdued. Dallas reported that wage pressures were mostly nonexistent, with the exception of the airline industry.
Prices of final goods and services were relatively stable in most Districts. Several Districts indicated that prices of raw materials also held steady, and only a few Districts reported input price increases. Steel prices moved slightly higher in the San Francisco District, but Cleveland and Chicago reported that steel prices were down. Chicago and San Francisco noted an increase in energy prices, but Atlanta reported that energy prices were mostly stable since the onset of the Gulf oil spill. Increased prices were noted for some metals by the Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts. Transportation costs increased in the Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts, and the Richmond District noted that shipping lines were attempting to raise rates.
For those of you following the forex markets closely, some curriencies are already consolidating.
USD/JPY Support at 86.70. Suggest LONG 87.10 for upside. Target 88.0
News: Beige Book Report
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and based on information collected on or before July 19, 2010. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economic activity has continued to increase, on balance, since the previous survey, although the Cleveland and Kansas City Districts reported that the level of economic activity generally held steady. Among those Districts reporting improvements in economic activity, a number of them noted that the increases were modest, and two Districts, Atlanta and Chicago, said that the pace of economic activity had slowed recently.
Manufacturing activity continued to expand in most Districts, although several Districts reported that activity had slowed or leveled off during the reporting period. Districts also noted improved conditions in the services sector. The five Districts reporting on transportation noted increased activity. Tourism activity also increased across the Districts, although the Atlanta District noted concerns about decreased leisure travel to the Gulf Coast. Retail sales reports generally indicated a continued rise in spending, and several Districts noted that necessities continued to be strong sellers, while big-ticket items moved more slowly. However, most Districts that reported on auto sales noted declines in recent weeks. Activity in residential real estate markets was sluggish in most Districts after the expiration of the April 30 deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. Commercial real estate markets, especially construction, remained weak. Banking conditions varied across the Districts, with some Districts noting soft or decreased overall loan demand; credit standards remained tight in most reporting Districts. Recent rains had mixed effects on crop conditions, while activity in the natural resources sector increased. Overall labor market conditions improved modestly across the Districts, with several reports of temporary hiring. Consumer prices of goods and services held steady in most reporting Districts. Input prices also held largely steady, with only a few reports of cost increases. Wage pressures continued to be contained on the whole.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Manufacturing activity in most Districts continued to move up since the last report, although the pace of activity slowed or activity leveled off in the New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Atlanta, and Richmond Districts. Automobile manufacturing was a bright spot for the Cleveland, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts. Automobile parts suppliers also experienced increased demand in both the Richmond and Chicago Districts. Fuel demand at refineries in the San Francisco District improved, while gasoline demand was steady in the Dallas District. Firms in the semiconductor manufacturing industry reported relatively strong sales or demand growth in both the Boston and San Francisco Districts. Firms in aircraft and parts manufacturing saw sales pick up in both the San Francisco and Dallas Districts. Manufacturing firms in the Boston, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts were optimistic that demand would continue to improve in the following months. However, Cleveland's contacts expect demand growth to taper off, Philadelphia noted that the balance of positive over negative views had narrowed, and Atlanta reported fewer firms planning expansions in production. Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas reported that firms in construction-related manufacturing experienced weak demand; construction supplies sales were flat in Kansas City, and Minneapolis reported that a firm in the sector was increasing production. Steel production declined in both the Chicago and Cleveland Districts. Some manufacturers in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts reported high excess production capacity. Capacity utilization was below pre-recession levels in Cleveland and edged lower among steel producers in Chicago.
Activity in the services sector improved across most Districts since the previous report. The freight transportation industry experienced gains in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, Dallas, and Philadelphia Districts. Boston, Minneapolis, and Dallas reported a pickup in demand for some consulting firms. Tourism activity increased in the San Francisco, New York, Minneapolis, Richmond, Kansas City, and Atlanta Districts. Atlanta reported that leisure travel decreased in the Gulf Coast, but some of the lost tourist traffic was offset by the presence of cleanup crews, oil company workers, and the National Guard. Information technology firms saw increased business in the Philadelphia, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts, while activity was flat in the Minneapolis District. Demand for healthcare services was flat in both the San Francisco and Richmond Districts, while activity increased in the Boston District.
Consumer Spending
Reports on retail sales during the early summer months were generally positive, although in most Districts the increases were modest. Retail sales in the New York, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts were higher than year-earlier sales, and Dallas reported solid gains. But sales in the Boston District were mixed compared with the previous year. Recent sales increased slightly in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts; sales in the Richmond District weakened; and sales in the Kansas City District were flat compared with the previous report. Several Districts cited apparel, food, and other necessities as recent strong sellers, while big-ticket items were weak sellers. Contacts reported satisfactory inventory levels in the New York District, mixed inventory levels in the Boston District, and low or declining inventory levels in the Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts. The outlook for sales was mixed: Retailers in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts reported that they expect modest positive sales growth in the upcoming months; contacts in the Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts reported a less optimistic outlook going forward than in the previous report; and retailers in the Boston District reported a cautious outlook.
The Districts that reported on auto sales during the early summer months generally noted a decrease in recent sales. Since the previous report, auto sales in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts declined, while auto sales in the Kansas City District increased and were unchanged in the Dallas District. Compared with last year, auto sales in the Atlanta and St. Louis Districts were higher. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas all reported that inventory levels were low or declining. Auto dealers anticipate little change in sales for the rest of 2010 in the Philadelphia District and expect sales to increase slowly in the Dallas District. Contacts in the Kansas City District expect continued strong demand, while those in the Cleveland District do not anticipate strong growth in the coming months.
Real Estate and Construction
Nearly all Districts reported sluggish housing markets in the months since the homebuyer tax credit expired on April 30. While some Districts, such as Boston and St. Louis, reported an increase in May and June home sales on a year-over-year basis, some contacts noted that these sales may reflect closings of homes under contract by the April tax credit deadline. The Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts reported that home sales are expected to weaken going forward. Residential construction remained limited in several Districts. In the Atlanta District, residential construction activity softened from already weak levels. Homebuilders in the Cleveland District do not expect a turnaround in new home construction any time this year. Builders in the Chicago District are not introducing new inventory without a signed contract on a home. Housing starts were expected to decline for the second half of the year in the Dallas District and to increase slightly over the next three months in the Kansas City District.
Commercial and industrial real estate markets continued to struggle in all twelve Districts. Overall, vacancy rates were flat to slightly increased and continued to exert downward pressure on rents. Construction activity remained weak in most Districts. The New York District noted that commercial development remained generally sluggish despite some pickup in office and retail leasing in New York City. Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Dallas reported that construction activity continued to be weak or to decline, and Cleveland reported that the increase in construction from previous reports has begun to diminish. Philadelphia reported that projects funded with federal stimulus support were near completion with no prospects for additional major construction, while Chicago reported that public infrastructure construction picked up. Developers reported difficult credit conditions in the Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, and Kansas City Districts, while the Dallas District reported a few developers going out of business. The outlook for commercial and industrial real estate across the Districts ranged from further declines in activity to slow growth.
Banking and Finance
Reports on banking conditions were largely mixed across the Districts. Banking activity in Richmond and loan demand in Kansas City increased modestly. Overall loan demand was reported as soft or weak in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Dallas, while total outstanding loan volume decreased in recent months in St. Louis but was steady in Philadelphia and San Francisco. Demand for commercial loans was flat to increasing in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts; in contrast, St. Louis reported a decrease in commercial loans outstanding, while New York, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported restrained or decreasing demand in this lending category. Demand for consumer loans was weak in Cleveland and eased in Philadelphia; Atlanta and St. Louis indicated a decline in consumer lending; but demand for consumer loans increased in New York and Kansas City. Demand for residential mortgage loans eased in the Philadelphia District but increased in the New York District; Cleveland reported residential mortgage activity below expectations at given rates; and real estate lending decreased in St. Louis. Credit was limited for commercial real estate loans in Chicago, and demand fell for these loans in New York and Kansas City.
Most Districts reporting on credit standards continued to note that lending standards remain restrictive. New York reported tighter credit standards for all categories except consumer loans, while Kansas City reported tighter commercial lending standards. Reports on credit quality were mixed in Cleveland and Kansas City, while quality was stable in San Francisco. Credit quality improved slightly in Philadelphia, Richmond, and Chicago. In the Dallas District, nonperforming loans have stabilized and are not expected to worsen. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Richmond continued to report delinquencies above historic norms. Delinquency rates in the New York District decreased for consumer loans but experienced little or no change in other categories.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Recent rains improved the dry conditions in the Minneapolis and Dallas Districts and reduced irrigation needs in the Kansas City District. In contrast, excess precipitation caused some crop damage in the Chicago District and some delays in the winter wheat harvest in the Kansas City District. Parts of the Atlanta District experienced some crop stress due to dryness and heat. Contacts reported that crops were in good condition overall in the Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts, but crop conditions worsened slightly in recent weeks in the Chicago District and were mixed in the St. Louis District compared with last year. Producers in the Chicago District continued to expect good yields for their corn and soybean crops, and the outlook for cotton yields in the Dallas District has improved.
Overall, activity in the energy sector increased since the previous report. Oil production in the Atlanta District and oil and natural gas production in the Cleveland District were relatively unchanged, but other activity picked up throughout the Districts during the reporting period. The number of drilling rigs increased in the Dallas District, and production continued to expand in the Kansas City District. Additionally, oil exploration in the Minneapolis District and oil extraction in the San Francisco District increased. Activity in the Minneapolis District's mining sector increased in recent weeks, as did production and demand for coal in the Cleveland District. Kansas City reported that contacts expect to see continued growth in energy production.
Labor Markets, Wages, and Prices
Labor market conditions improved gradually in several Districts. New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Richmond, and Atlanta all reported that labor markets improved, albeit modestly in some cases, while Boston and Dallas reported that employment was steady. Philadelphia, Atlanta, Richmond, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported that temporary employment experienced increased demand. Contacts in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts said that they continued to rely on temporary staff over permanent hires. Cleveland, Richmond, and Chicago saw hiring in the manufacturing sector. Cleveland also reported some new job openings in the healthcare industry. Boston and Cleveland noted that firms in some services industries were hiring mostly for replacement. Dallas reported that firms in the energy industry experienced significant regional layoffs as a result of the deepwater drilling moratorium. San Francisco noted continued high levels of unemployment and limited hiring.
Wage pressures remained largely contained across most Districts. Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Minneapolis, and San Francisco reported little or no change in wages, while Cleveland, Chicago, and Kansas City reported that wage pressures were small or remained subdued. Dallas reported that wage pressures were mostly nonexistent, with the exception of the airline industry.
Prices of final goods and services were relatively stable in most Districts. Several Districts indicated that prices of raw materials also held steady, and only a few Districts reported input price increases. Steel prices moved slightly higher in the San Francisco District, but Cleveland and Chicago reported that steel prices were down. Chicago and San Francisco noted an increase in energy prices, but Atlanta reported that energy prices were mostly stable since the onset of the Gulf oil spill. Increased prices were noted for some metals by the Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts. Transportation costs increased in the Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts, and the Richmond District noted that shipping lines were attempting to raise rates.
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Sorry, Progress On Reducing Joblessness Will Be Slow, And Uncertainty Is High
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
July 21, 2010
Source: thebusinessinsider.com url: http://read.bi/b9WPuP
Chairman Dodd, Senator Shelby, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.
Economic and Financial Developments
The economic expansion that began in the middle of last year is proceeding at a moderate pace, supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. Although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth. In particular, real consumer spending appears to have expanded at about a 2-1/2 percent annual rate in the first half of this year, with purchases of durable goods increasing especially rapidly. However, the housing market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction.
An important drag on household spending is the slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects. After two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially. In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009. Moreover, nearly half of the unemployed have been out of work for longer than six months. Long-term unemployment not only imposes exceptional near-term hardships on workers and their families, it also erodes skills and may have long-lasting effects on workers' employment and earnings prospects.
In the business sector, investment in equipment and software appears to have increased rapidly in the first half of the year, in part reflecting capital outlays that had been deferred during the downturn and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment. In contrast, spending on nonresidential structures--weighed down by high vacancy rates and tight credit--has continued to contract, though some indicators suggest that the rate of decline may be slowing. Both U.S. exports and U.S. imports have been expanding, reflecting growth in the global economy and the recovery of world trade. Stronger exports have in turn helped foster growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Inflation has remained low. The price index for personal consumption expenditures appears to have risen at an annual rate of less than 1 percent in the first half of the year. Although overall inflation has fluctuated, partly reflecting changes in energy prices, by a number of measures underlying inflation has trended down over the past two years. The slack in labor and product markets has damped wage and price pressures, and rapid increases in productivity have further reduced producers' unit labor costs.
My colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and I expect continued moderate growth, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and subdued inflation over the next several years. In conjunction with the June FOMC meeting, Board members and Reserve Bank presidents prepared forecasts of economic growth, unemployment, and inflation for the years 2010 through 2012 and over the longer run. The forecasts are qualitatively similar to those we released in February and May, although progress in reducing unemployment is now expected to be somewhat slower than we previously projected, and near-term inflation now looks likely to be a little lower. Most FOMC participants expect real GDP growth of 3 to 3-1/2 percent in 2010, and roughly 3-1/2 to 4-1/2 percent in 2011 and 2012. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to between 7 and 7-1/2 percent by the end of 2012. Most participants viewed uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the majority saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. Most participants projected that inflation will average only about 1 percent in 2010 and that it will remain low during 2011 and 2012, with the risks to the inflation outlook roughly balanced.
One factor underlying the Committee's somewhat weaker outlook is that financial conditions--though much improved since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months. Notably, concerns about the ability of Greece and a number of other euro-area countries to manage their sizable budget deficits and high levels of public debt spurred a broad-based withdrawal from risk-taking in global financial markets in the spring, resulting in lower stock prices and wider risk spreads in the United States. In response to these fiscal pressures, European leaders put in place a number of strong measures, including an assistance package for Greece and €500 billion of funding to backstop the near-term financing needs of euro-area countries. To help ease strains in U.S. dollar funding markets, the Federal Reserve reestablished temporary dollar liquidity swap lines with the ECB and several other major central banks. To date, drawings under the swap lines have been limited, but we believe that the existence of these lines has increased confidence in dollar funding markets, helping to maintain credit availability in our own financial system.
Like financial conditions generally, the state of the U.S. banking system has also improved significantly since the worst of the crisis. Loss rates on most types of loans seem to be peaking, and, in the aggregate, bank capital ratios have risen to new highs. However, many banks continue to have a large volume of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight. With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit. At the Federal Reserve, we have been working to facilitate the flow of funds to creditworthy small businesses. Along with the other supervisory agencies, we issued guidance to banks and examiners emphasizing that lenders should do all they can to meet the needs of creditworthy borrowers, including small businesses.1 We also have conducted extensive training programs for our bank examiners, with the message that lending to viable small businesses is good for the safety and soundness of our banking system as well as for our economy. We continue to seek feedback from both banks and potential borrowers about credit conditions. For example, over the past six months we have convened more than 40 meetings around the country of lenders, small business representatives, bank examiners, government officials, and other stakeholders to exchange ideas about the challenges faced by small businesses, particularly in obtaining credit. A capstone conference on addressing the credit needs of small businesses was held at the Board of Governors in Washington last week.2 This testimony includes an addendum that summarizes the findings of this effort and possible next steps.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis and the recession has involved several components. First, in response to the periods of intense illiquidity and dysfunction in financial markets that characterized the crisis, the Federal Reserve undertook a range of measures and set up emergency programs designed to provide liquidity to financial institutions and markets in the form of fully secured, mostly short-term loans. Over time, these programs helped to stem the panic and to restore normal functioning in a number of key financial markets, supporting the flow of credit to the economy. As financial markets stabilized, the Federal Reserve shut down most of these programs during the first half of this year and took steps to normalize the terms on which it lends to depository institutions. The only such programs currently open to provide new liquidity are the recently reestablished dollar liquidity swap lines with major central banks that I noted earlier. Importantly, our broad-based programs achieved their intended purposes with no loss to taxpayers. All of the loans extended through the multiborrower facilities that have come due have been repaid in full, with interest. In addition, the Board does not expect the Federal Reserve to incur a net loss on any of the secured loans provided during the crisis to help prevent the disorderly failure of systemically significant financial institutions.
A second major component of the Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis and recession has involved both standard and less conventional forms of monetary policy. Over the course of the crisis, the FOMC aggressively reduced its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 0 to 1/4 percent, which has been maintained since the end of 2008. And, as indicated in the statement released after the June meeting, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.3
In addition to the very low federal funds rate, the FOMC has provided monetary policy stimulus through large-scale purchases of longer-term Treasury debt, federal agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). A range of evidence suggests that these purchases helped improve conditions in mortgage markets and other private credit markets and put downward pressure on longer-term private borrowing rates and spreads.
Compared with the period just before the financial crisis, the System's portfolio of domestic securities has increased from about $800 billion to $2 trillion and has shifted from consisting of 100 percent Treasury securities to having almost two-thirds of its investments in agency-related securities. In addition, the average maturity of the Treasury portfolio nearly doubled, from three and one-half years to almost seven years. The FOMC plans to return the System's portfolio to a more normal size and composition over the longer term, and the Committee has been discussing alternative approaches to accomplish that objective.
One approach is for the Committee to adjust its reinvestment policy--that is, its policy for handling repayments of principal on the securities--to gradually normalize the portfolio over time. Currently, repayments of principal from agency debt and MBS are not being reinvested, allowing the holdings of those securities to run off as the repayments are received. By contrast, the proceeds from maturing Treasury securities are being reinvested in new issues of Treasury securities with similar maturities. At some point, the Committee may want to shift its reinvestment of the proceeds from maturing Treasury securities to shorter-term issues, so as to gradually reduce the average maturity of our Treasury holdings toward pre-crisis levels, while leaving the aggregate value of those holdings unchanged. At this juncture, however, no decision to change reinvestment policy has been made.
A second way to normalize the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's securities portfolio would be to sell some holdings of agency debt and MBS. Selling agency securities, rather than simply letting them run off, would shrink the portfolio and return it to a composition of all Treasury securities more quickly. FOMC participants broadly agree that sales of agency-related securities should eventually be used as part of the strategy to normalize the portfolio. Such sales will be implemented in accordance with a framework communicated well in advance and will be conducted at a gradual pace. Because changes in the size and composition of the portfolio could affect financial conditions, however, any decisions regarding the commencement or pace of asset sales will be made in light of the Committee's evaluation of the outlook for employment and inflation.
As I noted earlier, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. At some point, however, the Committee will need to begin to remove monetary policy accommodation to prevent the buildup of inflationary pressures. When that time comes, the Federal Reserve will act to increase short-term interest rates by raising the interest rate it pays on reserve balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks. To tighten the linkage between the interest rate paid on reserves and other short-term market interest rates, the Federal Reserve may also drain reserves from the banking system. Two tools for draining reserves from the system are being developed and tested and will be ready when needed. First, the Federal Reserve is putting in place the capacity to conduct large reverse repurchase agreements with an expanded set of counterparties. Second, the Federal Reserve has tested a term deposit facility, under which instruments similar to the certificates of deposit that banks offer their customers will be auctioned to depository institutions.
Of course, even as the Federal Reserve continues prudent planning for the ultimate withdrawal of extraordinary monetary policy accommodation, we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation's productive potential in a context of price stability.
Financial Reform Legislation
Last week, the Congress passed landmark legislation to reform the financial system and financial regulation, and the President signed the bill into law this morning. That legislation represents significant progress toward reducing the likelihood of future financial crises and strengthening the capacity of financial regulators to respond to risks that may emerge. Importantly, the legislation encourages an approach to supervision designed to foster the stability of the financial system as a whole as well as the safety and soundness of individual institutions. Within the Federal Reserve, we have already taken steps to strengthen our analysis and supervision of the financial system and systemically important financial firms in ways consistent with the new legislation. In particular, making full use of the Federal Reserve's broad expertise in economics, financial markets, payment systems, and bank supervision, we have significantly changed our supervisory framework to improve our consolidated supervision of large, complex bank holding companies, and we are enhancing the tools we use to monitor the financial sector and to identify potential systemic risks. In addition, the briefings prepared for meetings of the FOMC are now providing increased coverage and analysis of potential risks to the financial system, thus supporting the Federal Reserve's ability to make effective monetary policy and to enhance financial stability.
Much work remains to be done, both to implement through regulation the extensive provisions of the new legislation and to develop the macroprudential approach called for by the Congress. However, I believe that the legislation, together with stronger regulatory standards for bank capital and liquidity now being developed, will place our financial system on a sounder foundation and minimize the risk of a repetition of the devastating events of the past three years.
Thank you. I would be pleased to respond to your questions.
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
July 21, 2010
Source: thebusinessinsider.com url: http://read.bi/b9WPuP
Chairman Dodd, Senator Shelby, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.
Economic and Financial Developments
The economic expansion that began in the middle of last year is proceeding at a moderate pace, supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. Although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth. In particular, real consumer spending appears to have expanded at about a 2-1/2 percent annual rate in the first half of this year, with purchases of durable goods increasing especially rapidly. However, the housing market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction.
An important drag on household spending is the slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects. After two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially. In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009. Moreover, nearly half of the unemployed have been out of work for longer than six months. Long-term unemployment not only imposes exceptional near-term hardships on workers and their families, it also erodes skills and may have long-lasting effects on workers' employment and earnings prospects.
In the business sector, investment in equipment and software appears to have increased rapidly in the first half of the year, in part reflecting capital outlays that had been deferred during the downturn and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment. In contrast, spending on nonresidential structures--weighed down by high vacancy rates and tight credit--has continued to contract, though some indicators suggest that the rate of decline may be slowing. Both U.S. exports and U.S. imports have been expanding, reflecting growth in the global economy and the recovery of world trade. Stronger exports have in turn helped foster growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Inflation has remained low. The price index for personal consumption expenditures appears to have risen at an annual rate of less than 1 percent in the first half of the year. Although overall inflation has fluctuated, partly reflecting changes in energy prices, by a number of measures underlying inflation has trended down over the past two years. The slack in labor and product markets has damped wage and price pressures, and rapid increases in productivity have further reduced producers' unit labor costs.
My colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and I expect continued moderate growth, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and subdued inflation over the next several years. In conjunction with the June FOMC meeting, Board members and Reserve Bank presidents prepared forecasts of economic growth, unemployment, and inflation for the years 2010 through 2012 and over the longer run. The forecasts are qualitatively similar to those we released in February and May, although progress in reducing unemployment is now expected to be somewhat slower than we previously projected, and near-term inflation now looks likely to be a little lower. Most FOMC participants expect real GDP growth of 3 to 3-1/2 percent in 2010, and roughly 3-1/2 to 4-1/2 percent in 2011 and 2012. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to between 7 and 7-1/2 percent by the end of 2012. Most participants viewed uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the majority saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. Most participants projected that inflation will average only about 1 percent in 2010 and that it will remain low during 2011 and 2012, with the risks to the inflation outlook roughly balanced.
One factor underlying the Committee's somewhat weaker outlook is that financial conditions--though much improved since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months. Notably, concerns about the ability of Greece and a number of other euro-area countries to manage their sizable budget deficits and high levels of public debt spurred a broad-based withdrawal from risk-taking in global financial markets in the spring, resulting in lower stock prices and wider risk spreads in the United States. In response to these fiscal pressures, European leaders put in place a number of strong measures, including an assistance package for Greece and €500 billion of funding to backstop the near-term financing needs of euro-area countries. To help ease strains in U.S. dollar funding markets, the Federal Reserve reestablished temporary dollar liquidity swap lines with the ECB and several other major central banks. To date, drawings under the swap lines have been limited, but we believe that the existence of these lines has increased confidence in dollar funding markets, helping to maintain credit availability in our own financial system.
Like financial conditions generally, the state of the U.S. banking system has also improved significantly since the worst of the crisis. Loss rates on most types of loans seem to be peaking, and, in the aggregate, bank capital ratios have risen to new highs. However, many banks continue to have a large volume of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight. With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit. At the Federal Reserve, we have been working to facilitate the flow of funds to creditworthy small businesses. Along with the other supervisory agencies, we issued guidance to banks and examiners emphasizing that lenders should do all they can to meet the needs of creditworthy borrowers, including small businesses.1 We also have conducted extensive training programs for our bank examiners, with the message that lending to viable small businesses is good for the safety and soundness of our banking system as well as for our economy. We continue to seek feedback from both banks and potential borrowers about credit conditions. For example, over the past six months we have convened more than 40 meetings around the country of lenders, small business representatives, bank examiners, government officials, and other stakeholders to exchange ideas about the challenges faced by small businesses, particularly in obtaining credit. A capstone conference on addressing the credit needs of small businesses was held at the Board of Governors in Washington last week.2 This testimony includes an addendum that summarizes the findings of this effort and possible next steps.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis and the recession has involved several components. First, in response to the periods of intense illiquidity and dysfunction in financial markets that characterized the crisis, the Federal Reserve undertook a range of measures and set up emergency programs designed to provide liquidity to financial institutions and markets in the form of fully secured, mostly short-term loans. Over time, these programs helped to stem the panic and to restore normal functioning in a number of key financial markets, supporting the flow of credit to the economy. As financial markets stabilized, the Federal Reserve shut down most of these programs during the first half of this year and took steps to normalize the terms on which it lends to depository institutions. The only such programs currently open to provide new liquidity are the recently reestablished dollar liquidity swap lines with major central banks that I noted earlier. Importantly, our broad-based programs achieved their intended purposes with no loss to taxpayers. All of the loans extended through the multiborrower facilities that have come due have been repaid in full, with interest. In addition, the Board does not expect the Federal Reserve to incur a net loss on any of the secured loans provided during the crisis to help prevent the disorderly failure of systemically significant financial institutions.
A second major component of the Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis and recession has involved both standard and less conventional forms of monetary policy. Over the course of the crisis, the FOMC aggressively reduced its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 0 to 1/4 percent, which has been maintained since the end of 2008. And, as indicated in the statement released after the June meeting, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.3
In addition to the very low federal funds rate, the FOMC has provided monetary policy stimulus through large-scale purchases of longer-term Treasury debt, federal agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). A range of evidence suggests that these purchases helped improve conditions in mortgage markets and other private credit markets and put downward pressure on longer-term private borrowing rates and spreads.
Compared with the period just before the financial crisis, the System's portfolio of domestic securities has increased from about $800 billion to $2 trillion and has shifted from consisting of 100 percent Treasury securities to having almost two-thirds of its investments in agency-related securities. In addition, the average maturity of the Treasury portfolio nearly doubled, from three and one-half years to almost seven years. The FOMC plans to return the System's portfolio to a more normal size and composition over the longer term, and the Committee has been discussing alternative approaches to accomplish that objective.
One approach is for the Committee to adjust its reinvestment policy--that is, its policy for handling repayments of principal on the securities--to gradually normalize the portfolio over time. Currently, repayments of principal from agency debt and MBS are not being reinvested, allowing the holdings of those securities to run off as the repayments are received. By contrast, the proceeds from maturing Treasury securities are being reinvested in new issues of Treasury securities with similar maturities. At some point, the Committee may want to shift its reinvestment of the proceeds from maturing Treasury securities to shorter-term issues, so as to gradually reduce the average maturity of our Treasury holdings toward pre-crisis levels, while leaving the aggregate value of those holdings unchanged. At this juncture, however, no decision to change reinvestment policy has been made.
A second way to normalize the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's securities portfolio would be to sell some holdings of agency debt and MBS. Selling agency securities, rather than simply letting them run off, would shrink the portfolio and return it to a composition of all Treasury securities more quickly. FOMC participants broadly agree that sales of agency-related securities should eventually be used as part of the strategy to normalize the portfolio. Such sales will be implemented in accordance with a framework communicated well in advance and will be conducted at a gradual pace. Because changes in the size and composition of the portfolio could affect financial conditions, however, any decisions regarding the commencement or pace of asset sales will be made in light of the Committee's evaluation of the outlook for employment and inflation.
As I noted earlier, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. At some point, however, the Committee will need to begin to remove monetary policy accommodation to prevent the buildup of inflationary pressures. When that time comes, the Federal Reserve will act to increase short-term interest rates by raising the interest rate it pays on reserve balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks. To tighten the linkage between the interest rate paid on reserves and other short-term market interest rates, the Federal Reserve may also drain reserves from the banking system. Two tools for draining reserves from the system are being developed and tested and will be ready when needed. First, the Federal Reserve is putting in place the capacity to conduct large reverse repurchase agreements with an expanded set of counterparties. Second, the Federal Reserve has tested a term deposit facility, under which instruments similar to the certificates of deposit that banks offer their customers will be auctioned to depository institutions.
Of course, even as the Federal Reserve continues prudent planning for the ultimate withdrawal of extraordinary monetary policy accommodation, we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation's productive potential in a context of price stability.
Financial Reform Legislation
Last week, the Congress passed landmark legislation to reform the financial system and financial regulation, and the President signed the bill into law this morning. That legislation represents significant progress toward reducing the likelihood of future financial crises and strengthening the capacity of financial regulators to respond to risks that may emerge. Importantly, the legislation encourages an approach to supervision designed to foster the stability of the financial system as a whole as well as the safety and soundness of individual institutions. Within the Federal Reserve, we have already taken steps to strengthen our analysis and supervision of the financial system and systemically important financial firms in ways consistent with the new legislation. In particular, making full use of the Federal Reserve's broad expertise in economics, financial markets, payment systems, and bank supervision, we have significantly changed our supervisory framework to improve our consolidated supervision of large, complex bank holding companies, and we are enhancing the tools we use to monitor the financial sector and to identify potential systemic risks. In addition, the briefings prepared for meetings of the FOMC are now providing increased coverage and analysis of potential risks to the financial system, thus supporting the Federal Reserve's ability to make effective monetary policy and to enhance financial stability.
Much work remains to be done, both to implement through regulation the extensive provisions of the new legislation and to develop the macroprudential approach called for by the Congress. However, I believe that the legislation, together with stronger regulatory standards for bank capital and liquidity now being developed, will place our financial system on a sounder foundation and minimize the risk of a repetition of the devastating events of the past three years.
Thank you. I would be pleased to respond to your questions.
| share | like 37 | report | 269 views |
Correction or minor bounce? 08 July 2010
Dow: +274.66 or up 2.82%
NASDAQ: +65.59 or up 3.13%
S&P 500: +32.21 or up 3.13%
All stocks were up,even gold too. But US Dollar index continues to fall.
Is this a correction up or just a minor bounce?
In my opinion,if S&P stays above 1100, we may have a bull rally.If not all indicators point down.
Stay tuned..this is interesting as analysts try to predict whether the economy will have a "double-dip" or continuation of the bull rally since March 09 lows.
Chris Lee
NASDAQ: +65.59 or up 3.13%
S&P 500: +32.21 or up 3.13%
All stocks were up,even gold too. But US Dollar index continues to fall.
Is this a correction up or just a minor bounce?
In my opinion,if S&P stays above 1100, we may have a bull rally.If not all indicators point down.
Stay tuned..this is interesting as analysts try to predict whether the economy will have a "double-dip" or continuation of the bull rally since March 09 lows.
Chris Lee
| share | like 41 | report | 269 views |
CRITICAL Support Levels
These are critical support levels to watch.If they break,then look either for huge drop or minor bounce before they go ballistic (that is..all the way down)
S&P 500 : 1000
GOLD : $1200
CRUDE OIL : $70
I will update u accordingly every week!!
Happy trading!!
Chris Lee
Your friendly forex trader
S&P 500 : 1000
GOLD : $1200
CRUDE OIL : $70
I will update u accordingly every week!!
Happy trading!!
Chris Lee
Your friendly forex trader
| share | like 41 | report | 269 views |
- Forex Market Updates 25th August
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Added: Jul 13th 2010 at 12:33 AM · 266 views · 0 comments · 27 likes · read the article - Forex Markets Update : 09 July 2010 Friday
Added: Jul 8th 2010 at 11:44 PM · 286 views · 0 comments · 30 likes · read the article - Forex Market Updates: Thursday 08 July
Added: Jul 7th 2010 at 10:18 PM · 164 views · 0 comments · 23 likes · read the article - Forex Markets Update : 6th July Tuesday
Added: Jul 5th 2010 at 10:05 PM · 293 views · 0 comments · 29 likes · read the article - Forex News Update: 5th July Monday
Added: Jul 4th 2010 at 10:41 PM · 328 views · 0 comments · 38 likes · read the article - Where Do We Go From Here?Double-Dip?
Added: Jul 3rd 2010 at 10:58 PM · 304 views · 0 comments · 27 likes · read the article - It has been a crazy Friday 02-07
Added: Jul 3rd 2010 at 3:02 AM · 277 views · 1 comments · 34 likes · read the article

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