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  • Dollar Stays Weak Against Most Major Currencies

    With the Federal Reserve's monetary policy review due in another few days, the U.S. dollar stayed subdued against most major currencies on Friday.

    After early weakness, the greenback regained some lost ground after data showed a bigger than expected increase in retail sales in the month of August.

    The dollar index, which declined to a low of 98.00 earlier in the morning, recovered to around 98.30 by mid-morning, but continued to stay below the flat line. It was last seen quoting at 98.17, down 0.14% from previous close.

    Against the Euro, the dollar was down 0.14%, at 1.1078. The dollar had weakened to 1.1111 earlier in the day.

    Data from Eurostat showed the euro area trade surplus increased in July on higher exports, rising to a seasonally adjusted EUR 19 billion from EUR 17.7 billion in June. Exports grew 0.6% in July from June, while imports remained stable.

    The Pound Sterling gained substantial ground against the greenback, with unit of sterling fetching as much as $1.2505, about 1.5% up from previous close, on rising hopes the U.K. would avoid a no-deal Brexit on October 31 and on possibility that Article 50 being extended till January 2020.

    The Japanese yen was at 108.12 a dollar, little changed from previious close.

    Final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Japan's industrial production expanded as estimated in July, rising 1.3% in the month.

    The dollar gained more than 0.5% against the loonie, with the pair trading at 1.3282.

    Against the Aussie, the dollar was down 0.23%, with the pair trading at 0.6882. The Swiss franc was flat at 0.9903.

    A report released by the U.S. Commerce Department earlier in the day showed U.S. retail sales increased by more than expected in August thanks to a jump in auto sales.

    The report said retail sales rose by 0.4% in August after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8% in July. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2% compared to the 0.7% increase originally reported for the previous month.

    The stronger than expected retail sales growth came as sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers spiked by 1.8% in August after inching up by 0.1% in July.

    Data from the Labor Department showed import prices fell by 0.5% in August after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July. Economists had expected import prices to drop by 0.4%.

    The University of Michigan's preliminary report said consumer sentiment has rebounded by more than anticipated in the month of September.

    The report said the consumer sentiment index rose to 92.0 in September after plunging to a three-year low of 89.8 in August. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 90.9.

    The bigger than expected rebound by the headline index came as the index of current economic conditions crept up to 106.9 in September from 105.3 in August and the index of consumer expectations climbed to 82.4 from 79.9.


    The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
  • Crude Oil Futures Settle Lower For 4th Day

    Crude oil prices edged lower on Friday, extending losses to a fourth straight session, as traders feared a likely drop in energy demand and excess supply in the market.

    The possibility of the U.S. relaxing sanctions on Iran also weighed on crude oil prices.

    A report from Baker Hughes that said oil rig count in the U.S. dropped for a fourth straight week, limited oil's slide.

    Despite improving signs of some positive developments on the U.S.-China trade front following the two nations making conciliatory gestures ahead of the next round of crucial talks, a notable surge in demand for energy looks unlikely.

    West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended down $0.24, or 0.4%, at $54.85 a barrel.

    On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures for October ended down $0.66, or about 1.2%, at $55.09 a barrel.

    For the week, WTI crude oil futures shed nearly 3%.

    Baker Hughes said today that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil declined by five to 733 this week.

    In its latest monthly report, OPEC said global oil market would be in surplus next year. Oil demand will drop by about 60,000 barrels per day next year.

    The recent meeting of OPEC members in Abu Dhabi ended without the group deciding on any deeper output cut, although OPEC and its allies urged members to implement promised cuts.

    On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would think about an interim deal with China but would rather prefer a full agreement between the two countries.


    The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
  • Treasuries Move Sharply Lower On Positive Trade, Economic News

    Extending the significant downward trend seen over the past several sessions, treasuries moved sharply lower during trading on Friday.

    Bond prices moved steadily lower throughout the session before closing firmly in negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, surged up by 11.2 basis points to 1.903 percent.

    With the substantial increase on the day, the ten-year yield jumped to its highest closing level in well over a month.

    The sell-off by treasuries came as positive news on both the trade and economic fronts reduced the appeal of safe havens such as bonds.

    On the trade front, China's Ministry of Commerce revealed plans to exempt U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans and pork, from additional tariffs.

    China will add the agricultural products to a list of 16 types of American-made products granted tariff exemptions as a sign of goodwill ahead of the next round of trade talks.

    The Commerce Ministry also said it welcomes President Donald Trump's move to temporarily delay raising the rate of tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.

    Meanwhile, Trump said he would think about an interim deal with China but would prefer a full agreement as the world's two largest economies look to end the widening trade war.

    "If we're going to do the deal, let's get it done," Trump told reporters on Thursday. "A lot of people are talking about it, I see a lot of analysts are saying an interim deal - meaning we'll do pieces of it, the easy ones first."

    "But there's no easy or hard. There's a deal or there's not a deal," he added. "But it's something we would consider, I guess."

    In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report showing U.S. retail sales increased by more than expected in August amid a jump in auto sales.

    The Commerce Department said retail sales rose by 0.4 percent in August after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in July.

    Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.7 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

    The stronger than expected retail sales growth came as sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers spiked by 1.8 percent in August after inching up by 0.1 percent in July.

    However, Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, called the jump in auto sales "suspicious looking," noting the surge in the nominal value of motor vehicle sales is "hard to square" with the 0.7 percent increase in the unit sales reported by manufacturers.

    Excluding the jump in auto sales, retail sales came in unchanged in August after surging up by 1.0 percent in July. Ex-auto sales had been expected to inch up by 0.1 percent.

    A separate report from the University of Michigan showed U.S. consumer sentiment has rebounded by more than expected in the month of September.

    The Federal Reserve is likely to be in the spotlight next week, with the central bank widely expected to announce another interest rate cut following a two-day meeting ending on Wednesday.

    The monetary policy decision may overshadow reports on industrial production, housing starts, existing home sales and regional manufacturing activity.


    The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Forex Analysis
  • September 13, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations

    analytics5d7ba8638a9f7.jpg

    On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

    In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established above 1.2100 before August 9 when temporary bearish movement was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

    Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated off the recent bottom (1.2025).

    This brought the GBP/USD pair back above 1.2100 (Lower limit of the recently established consolidation-zone) within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

    As expected, further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2230 then 1.2280 where recent bearish rejection was demonstrated (near the upper limit of the recent movement channel).

    That's why, another quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.2100 then 1.2000 (corresponding to the previous bottom established on August 9).

    Last Week, Early signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) were manifested around 1.1960 bringing the GBPUSD back above 1.2100 and 1.2220 where the GBPUSD pair looked overbought.

    However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 bringing the pair back inside the depicted movement channel again.

    As Expected, temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2400 - 1.2450 where the upper limit of the current movement channel comes to meet the pair.

    The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2450 remains defended by the GBPUSD bears.

    On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.2270 can turn the short-term outlook into bearish, thus allowing more bearish decline towards 1.2220 and 1.2100.

    Trade Recommendations:

    Conservative traders can look for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the current price levels (1.2450) for a valid SELL entry.

    T/P level to be placed around 1.2330, 1.2280 and 1.2220 while S/L should be placed above 1.2520.

    The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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